Decline and fall of Western Manufacturing - a pessimistic reading of Pisano and Shih (2009)

Those who don't know history are condemned to repeat it.

Unfortunately those of us who do know history get dragged right along with the others, because we live in a world where everything is connected to everything else.



Above is my visualization of Pisano and Shih's 2009 Harvard Business Review article "Restoring American Competitiveness." This is a stylized version of a story that has happened in several industries.

Step 1: Companies start outsourcing their manufacturing operations to companies (or countries) which can perform them in a more cost-effective manner. Perhaps these companies/countries have cheaper labor, fewer costly regulations, or less overhead.

Step 2: Isolated from their manufacture, companies lose the skills for process engineering. After all, improving manufacturing processes is a task that depends on continuous experimentation and feedback from the manufacturing process. If the manufacturing process is outsourced, the necessary interaction between manufacturing and process engineers happens progressively more inside the contractor, not the original manufacturer.

Step 3: Without process engineering to motivate it, the original manufacturer (and the companies supporting it in the original country, in the diagram the US) stops investing in process technology development. For example, the companies that developed machine tools for US manufacturers in conjunction with US process engineers now have to so do with Taiwanese engineers in Taiwan, which leads to relocation of these companies and eventually of the skilled professionals.

Step 4: Because of spillovers in technological development between process technologies and product technologies (including the development of an engineering class and engineering support infrastructure), more and more product technology development is outsourced. For example, as fewer engineering jobs are available in the original country, fewer people go to engineering school; the opposite happens in the outsourced-to country, where an engineering class grows. That growth is a spillover that is seldom accounted for.

Step 5: As more and more technology development happens in the outsourced-to country, it captures more and more of the product innovation process, eventually substituting for the innovators in the original manufacturer's country. Part of this innovation may still be under contract with the original manufacturer, but the development of innovation skills in the outsourced-to country means that at some point it will have its own independent manufacturers (who will compete with the original manufacturer).

Pisano and Shih are optimists, as their article proposes solutions to slow, stop, and reverse this process of technological decline of the West (in their case, the US). It's worth a read (it's not free but it's cheaper than a day worth of lattes, m'kay?) and ends in an upbeat note.

I'm less optimistic than Pisano and Shih. Behold:

Problem 1: Too many people and too much effort dedicated to non-wealth-creating activities and too many people and too much effort aimed at stopping wealth-creating activities.

Problem 2: Lack of emphasis in useful skills (particularly STEM, entrepreneurship, and "maker" culture) in education. Sadly accompanied by a sense of entitlement and self-confidence which is inversely proportional to the actual skills.

Problem 3: Too much public discourse (politicians of both parties, news media, entertainment) which vilifies the creation of wealth and applauds the forcible redistribution of whatever wealth is created.

Problem 4: A generalized confusion between wealth and pieces of fancy green paper with pictures of dead presidents (or Ben Franklin) on them.

Problem 5: A lack of priorities or perspective beyond the immediate sectorial interests.

We are doomed!

Preparing instruction is different from preparing presentations

The title bears repeating, as many people confuse instruction and presentation preparation skills and criteria for success: Preparing instruction is different from preparing presentations.

My 3500-word post on preparing presentations is exactly for that purpose, preparing presentations. I could try to write a post for preparing instruction, but it would quickly get to book size. In fact, I recommend several books in this post describing the evolution of information design in my teaching approach. (The most relevant books for teaching are at the addendum to this post.)

I made a diagram depicting my process of preparing for a instruction event (the diagram was for my personal use, but there's no reason not to share it; click for larger):



And, for comparison, the process for preparing presentations:



Because they look similar, I need to point out that the tools used in each phase of the process are different for presentations and for instruction.

I'm a big fan of participant-centered learning (though not necessarily the HBS cases that people always associate with PCL); the idea is simple: students learn from doing, not from watching the instructor do. So, many of the "materials" (more precisely, most of the time in the "plan with timing" part of the diagram) in an instruction event are audience work: discussions, examples brought by the audience (to complement those brought by the instructor) and exercises. These are not materials that can be used in a speech or a presentation to a large audience.

Also, while a story works as a motivator for both presentations and instruction, I tend to use exercises or problems as motivators for instruction. For example, I start a class on promotion metrics by asking "how do you measure the lift" of some promotional activity, and proceed from there. By making it a management task that they have to do as part of their jobs, I get some extra attention from the audience. Plus, they can immediately see how the class will help them with their jobs.*

There are presentations that are mostly for instruction purposes, and there are parts of instruction events that are presentations. But never mistake one for the other: preparing instruction is different from preparing presentations.

Though so much instruction is so poorly prepared that even the basics of presentation preparation will help make instruction less of a disaster, that's just a step towards instruction-specific preparation.

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*I have a large variety of exercises for each knowledge unit I teach, and they are not all of the form "here's a problem, what's the solution?" Some are of the forms "here's what a company is doing, what are they trying to achieve?" and "here's a problem, here's what the company is doing, what is wrong with that?"


Addendum: Two books on preparation (and delivery) of instruction, from the post describing the evolution of information design in my teaching approach:

Tools for teaching, by Barbara Gross Davis covers every element of course design, class design, class management, and evaluation. It is rather focussed on institutional learning (like university courses), but many of the issues, techniques, and checklists are applicable in other instruction environments.

Designing effective instruction, by Gary Morrison, Steven Ross, and Jerrold Kemp, complements Tools for teaching. While TfT has the underlying model of a class, this book tackles the issues of training and instruction from a professional service point of view. (In short: TfT is geared towards university classes, DEI is geared towards firm-specific Exec-Ed.)