This TED talk, Tim Harford on the folly of assuming one can control complex systems, is worth watching:
I have blogged about the problems with understanding causality in complex systems (in my case a system that is deceptively simple to describe but has complex behavior) before. I have Tim Harford's book Adapt, but haven't finished it yet; I will blog book notes (especially now that the Kindle App allows for copy-paste).
Experimentation, evolution, adaptation: the secret to a successful complex system. As in Nature so in business (and possibly other management fields).